Highest temperature in Manila on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila’s temperature on 10 August is being driven by a wet, humid monsoon setup rather than a clean heat-surge pattern. The current market price of **0% YES** fits the fact that forecast services are showing only modest daytime warmth, with AccuWeather’s Manila page pointing to a high around **85°F/29°C** and thunderstorms or showers through the day, while PAGASA’s selected-cities outlook also places Metro Manila in a rainy southwest-monsoon regime.[2][11][12]

For context, Manila in August usually sits in the high-20s to low-30s Celsius, so the main question is not whether it can get warm, but whether enough sun breaks through for the day’s maximum to reach the upper bands of the market’s settlement ranges.[6][10][16] Comparable rainy-season days typically peak near the low 30s or upper 20s rather than pushing meaningfully higher, which makes the market lean more on cloud cover and rainfall timing than on any one headline forecast.[1][12]

The key catalyst to watch is whether afternoon thunderstorms develop later than expected, because that would cap the observed maximum in the Weather Underground Daily Observations table, which controls settlement here.[9] Traders should also watch updates from PAGASA and major forecast desks such as AccuWeather, since their intraday adjustments to rain timing and cloud cover are the most likely driver of any move away from the current near-zero pricing.[2][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Manila on August 10? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.