Highest temperature in NYC on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is in the normal August heat window, with forecasts clustered in the upper 80s to around 90°F rather than the mid-90s or higher needed to make a much warmer range more likely. AccuWeather’s 10-day outlook has around 90°F for Monday, while the National Weather Service’s climatology shows New York’s typical August highs sit in the low-to-mid 80s, so the market’s low single-digit price is consistent with an outcome that requires an unusually hot reading at LaGuardia rather than a routine summer day.[14][2]

For framing, the historical analogues point to how rare the extreme tail is: August 10 has produced very hot outcomes in past years, but the broader record still centres on values below the highest buckets, with recent August 10 highs in the 90s rather than sustained triple-digit heat.[8][3] That makes the current 2% YES look more like a longshot on a specific station print than a bet on a general warm spell, especially because the contract resolves off the Weather Underground Daily Observations table for KLGA, not the headline summary number.[13]

The main catalyst to watch is whether the day runs a few degrees hotter than guidance, with any late-afternoon convection, marine influence, or cloud cover changing the top reading. Polymarket’s live pricing has been leaning towards a 90–91°F outcome at 56%, with 88–89°F next at 23%, which suggests traders are mostly anchoring to forecast highs rather than an outlier spike; that makes the resolution hinge on whether LaGuardia peaks at the top end of the model range or slips back into the high 80s.[12][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on August 10? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.