Highest temperature in NYC on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to establish the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 11 August 2026, with resolution based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders are pricing expectations for peak heat during a specific summer day in New York City roughly two years hence.

Historical August temperatures at LaGuardia show considerable variability. The station's all-time August high stands at 104°F, recorded in 1936, though readings above 95°F occur irregularly across the month. August 11 specifically has seen highs ranging from 68°F to 96°F over the past three decades, with a median around 82°F. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either pricing an extremely narrow temperature band or reflecting genuine uncertainty about which specific range the market offers as settlement options.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts as August 2026 approaches, particularly Atlantic hurricane activity and jet-stream positioning, both of which influence New York heat waves. The National Weather Service's extended-range outlooks, typically issued 8–14 days before the target date, will provide the most actionable signal. Urban heat island effects at LaGuardia—a densely developed airport surrounded by Queens infrastructure—consistently elevate readings 2–5°F above surrounding areas, a factor historical comparisons should account for when assessing probability distributions across temperature bands.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on August 11? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.