Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the daily high temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026, which will determine the settlement of this weather market. Historical data shows that late June in New York typically sees highs between 77°F and 92°F, with the climate normal averaging around 70.3°F and record highs reaching 101°F[5][9]. On 20 June 2026, a similar market resolved to 82–83°F, indicating that temperatures in the 80s are common for this period[1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the highest range suggests the market believes extreme heat above 95°F is unlikely, aligning with the typical variability where most days stay below the record maximum[2].

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts and any sudden shifts in atmospheric conditions, as these are the primary catalysts for temperature deviations. While no political debates or campaign-finance disclosures directly influence weather, unexpected heatwaves could be linked to broader climate patterns discussed in recent environmental reports from the National Weather Service[4]. The market is leaning on the dependency of real-time meteorological data from Wunderground, which will provide the official settlement figure[3]. Any announcement of a high-pressure system moving into the region could alter the probability distribution, making it essential to watch daily updates from AccuWeather or similar aggregators for the most accurate near-term predictions[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on June 26? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.