Highest temperature in Paris on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport is the settlement point, so the real driver is whether the day’s peak at that station finishes in the high 30s Celsius or slips back towards the mid-30s. The crowd is pricing **0% YES**, which implies traders currently see the exact outcome as either already locked in or extremely unlikely to change, but the market itself resolves to the highest observed reading on the day, not a forecast of the afternoon weather.

For context, Paris in June usually sees daytime highs around the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, while 37–38°C is well outside normal seasonal behaviour.[2] That makes a heat-event framing more relevant than an ordinary weather calendar read: recent France-wide heat episodes have repeatedly pushed Paris into the low 30s or beyond, and Reuters reported French forecasters warning of temperatures reaching **35 to 38 degrees Celsius** with a “significant rise” from Sunday through Tuesday.[3] In comparable hot spells, the market tends to cluster around whether the peak lands one bracket higher or lower, because a single extra degree can flip the settlement range.

The main catalyst for traders is the official Météo-France outlook for the Paris region, plus any updated warnings that affect the airport station’s afternoon maximum. Reuters’ reporting on the national heat surge is the clearest external cue, but the immediate dependency is the local timing of cloud cover, wind shift and whether peak heating arrives before the settlement window closes.[3] If the day’s maximum has already been logged by early afternoon, the market should track whether subsequent updates confirm a plateau in the 37–38°C band rather than a late spike into 39°C.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Paris on June 22? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.