Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 11 August 2026 will determine this market's resolution, with data sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary forecasts. Seoul's summer climate presents consistent heat patterns, though exact daily maxima vary considerably depending on atmospheric conditions and monsoon activity during early August.

Historical August temperatures at Incheon show daily highs typically ranging between 28°C and 33°C, with occasional peaks above 34°C during heat waves. The past decade's records indicate that extreme heat events—those exceeding 35°C—occur in roughly one in three Augusts, though their timing within the month remains unpredictable. August 11 specifically has seen highs between 29°C and 32°C in most recent years, with only isolated instances of temperatures reaching 34°C or above. This historical distribution provides the baseline against which current market probability should be assessed.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts released in the days immediately preceding 11 August 2026, particularly from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international models tracking potential heat dome formation or tropical cyclone activity in the region. The timing of any monsoon systems or high-pressure systems over the Korean peninsula will be critical; early August typically sits within the peak summer heating period, but specific daily conditions depend on synoptic patterns that only become reliably predictable five to seven days in advance. Current crowd assessment at 0% suggests markets may be underweighting the baseline frequency of moderately warm days, though this could reflect genuine forecast confidence in cooler conditions for that particular date.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 11? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.