Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 18 August 2026, using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table as the authoritative source. Seoul's summer temperatures typically peak in late July and early August, with August generally showing slightly lower daily highs than the preceding month as the monsoon season progresses. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows that mid-August temperatures at Incheon average around 28–29°C, though heat waves can push readings into the low-to-mid 30s Celsius.

The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current state rather than a forecast of unseasonably cold conditions. Comparable August temperature ranges at Incheon have historically clustered between 25°C and 35°C, with extreme outliers rare. The resolution hinges entirely on Weather Underground's recorded observations; discrepancies between the Daily Observations table and the Day High & Low summary section will be resolved in favour of the former. Traders should monitor the specific temperature bands offered and cross-reference historical August patterns from the Korea Meteorological Administration or Weather Underground's own historical records for Incheon to calibrate expectations around typical mid-summer conditions in the region.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 18? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.