Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's maximum temperature on 20 August 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or expectation that the settlement window timing creates resolution uncertainty.

August temperatures at Incheon historically peak in the 29–32°C range, with extreme heat days occasionally reaching 33–35°C during particularly intense heat waves. The past decade has seen gradual warming trends; the Korea Meteorological Administration recorded 34.3°C at Incheon on 8 August 2023 during an exceptional heat event. Comparable August days typically fall within the 28–31°C band, providing a baseline against which the 2026 forecast should be calibrated. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders may be waiting for seasonal forecasts or treating the market as inactive pending clearer resolution mechanics.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended-range forecasts released in late July 2026, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks for heat patterns across the Korean peninsula. Pacific typhoon activity in early-to-mid August can suppress temperatures significantly, whilst high-pressure systems over northern China tend to drive extreme heat into Seoul. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 20 August, which aligns with typical afternoon peak temperatures; any discrepancy between Weather Underground's Daily Observations and summary sections will favour the former source per market rules.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 20? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.