Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 27 June 2026, which will determine the market resolution. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the "YES" outcome, suggesting the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range being wagered on. Historical data indicates that late June in Shanghai typically sees daily highs between 29°C and 35°C, with the hot season officially beginning around 17 June and lasting until mid-September[2][5]. In comparable years, temperatures frequently exceed 30°C, reaching as high as 35°C during sunny conditions, making a low-temperature outcome statistically improbable unless an unusual weather anomaly occurs[5].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground and BBC Weather for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation that could suppress peak temperatures[1]. While no scheduled political debates or campaign-finance disclosures directly influence weather, broader atmospheric patterns such as the East Asian monsoon remain the primary catalyst for this market[6]. The market appears to be leaning on the expectation of standard summer heat, where highs consistently surpass 30°C, rather than anticipating a cold snap. Recent forecasts for June 2026 predict daily highs ranging from 27°C to 30°C, reinforcing the view that the temperature will likely land in the upper ranges rather than the lower bracket implied by the current 0% probability[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.