Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s weather market is leaning on whether the airport station reaches a hotter reading than the current summer norm, and the early read is firmly in the high-20s to mid-30s Celsius range rather than anything extreme. Forecasts for 10 August point to a very hot day, with AccuWeather showing a high of 97°F and WeatherAPI putting the day’s maximum near 36.6°C, while Weather Underground’s own history page for Bao’an has already shown 98°F on 8 August, which underlines that the station can easily reach the mid-30s Celsius in August.[9][7][6]

For context, Shenzhen in August is usually hot, humid and rain-prone, with climatology around 32°C to 33°C highs and about 27°C lows, so a reading in the low-to-mid 30s is more representative than a sudden outlier.[12][8] That helps explain why a 0% implied YES price looks detached from the weather baseline rather than from a clear forecast signal; if anything, the market is pricing in uncertainty over the exact resolution source and the station’s peak rather than a fundamentally cool day.[14][6]

The main catalyst to watch is the intraday progression at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport, because this market resolves off Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, not the summary high/low panel.[6] Traders should focus on whether the daytime peak arrives before cloud, showers or sea-breeze effects cap the temperature; current short-range forecasts from AccuWeather and Timeanddate both keep the day hot, with only modest precipitation chances, so the key dependency is whether the airport site prints an observation above the dominant bracket before the late-morning to afternoon period ends.[17][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 10? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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