Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s weather outcome hinges on the peak reading at Bao’an International Airport on 31 July, and the market is effectively betting on whether the city simply delivers another standard midsummer hot day or something closer to its upper end. July in Shenzhen is typically the hottest month, with average highs around 31-32°C and a muggy, rain-prone pattern that can cap daytime warmth even when the broader climate is oppressive.[2][18][20]

That framing helps explain why a 0% yes price is so extreme: the historical record shows Shenzhen can reach the mid-30s Celsius, but the long-run average for this date is only about 31.1°C, which is firmly below the very top of the range needed to move the market into the highest bands.[1] Comparable July cases also show that late-month heat can still spike, with one guide listing 31-31 July highs near 34°C in recent years, but those are still well short of record territory.[16]

The main catalyst for traders is the live weather evolution around the airport station through the settlement window, not any political or scheduled event. For a market built on a single-day temperature maximum, the decisive inputs are the official hourly readings, cloud cover, and any rain-cooled afternoon dip; Wunderground’s Shenzhen Bao’an history page is the stated resolver, so intraday updates there matter more than broader city forecasts.[10][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 31? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.