Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 18 August 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and measured against historical August benchmarks for the city. The resolution will draw from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, establishing a precise baseline for settlement across defined temperature ranges.

Tokyo's August temperatures have historically clustered between 32–35°C, with extreme heat events pushing toward 37–39°C during particularly intense summer patterns. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool August or uncertainty about the specific resolution methodology. August 2025 saw Tokyo peak at 34.5°C according to Japan Meteorological Agency records, whilst the city's all-time August high reached 39.7°C in 2013. Understanding these historical bounds is essential for calibrating expectations around which temperature band will ultimately resolve.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts released in late July and early August 2026, particularly from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models tracking Pacific high-pressure systems. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through mid-2026 will influence whether August leans toward typical or anomalous heat. The specific choice of Haneda Airport as the measurement station matters; airport microclimates can differ from central Tokyo readings. Any significant tropical cyclone activity in early August could suppress temperatures, whilst stalled high-pressure systems would elevate them. Weather Underground's data availability and consistency through the settlement window on 18 August at 12:00 UTC will be the critical dependency for final resolution.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 18? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.