Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the recorded peak temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 5 July 2026, a date historically synonymous with intense summer heat and high humidity in the capital. Current market pricing of 0% for a "YES" outcome on a specific low threshold appears disconnected from reality, as the frontrunner outcome is 27°C at 54%, with 26°C trailing at 44%[1]. This suggests the crowd is betting on a hot day, not a cold one, making the zero probability for the low range a likely mispricing of the seasonal norm.

Historical data confirms that July in Tokyo routinely sees temperatures exceeding 35°C, with recent records showing streaks of extreme heat and humidity reaching nearly 100%[3][6]. Japan’s all-time maximum of 41.8°C was recorded in August 2025, indicating a warming trend that makes cool July days increasingly rare[2]. The average high for Haneda in July 2026 is forecast at 85°F (approx. 29.4°C), with daily highs ranging from 76°F to 91°F, firmly placing the expected peak well above the 22°C or below range[7].

Traders should monitor the release of official meteorological data from the Japan Meteorological Agency and real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source[1]. While no specific political debates or campaign-finance disclosures directly influence weather, the market is leaning on the established catalyst of seasonal heat patterns rather than external political shocks. Recent news confirms Tokyo charted temperatures above 35°C for five consecutive days in June, marking the worst documented hot streak since records began, reinforcing the likelihood of high temperatures in early July[6]. The absence of low-temperature outcomes in current pricing aligns with these historical precedents.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.