Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 7 July 2026 is set to be recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, with the market currently pricing outcomes between 25°C and 27°C as most likely. Despite the user’s note of 0% YES for a specific binary outcome, the actual Polymarket data shows 26°C as the frontrunner at 50%, followed by 25°C at 30%, indicating strong trader confidence in a mild-to-moderate summer peak rather than extreme heat [1].

Historical July highs at Haneda typically reach the low 30s Celsius, but recent years show variability due to humid, cloud-covered conditions that suppress peak temperatures [8]. The current implied odds cluster tightly around 26–27°C, reflecting forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant outcome, similar to patterns seen in the lowest-temperature market where 21°C leads at 39.5% with nearby outcomes within a few percentage points [2]. This suggests traders are weighing the likelihood of rain or cloud cover against typical midsummer heat.

Traders should monitor the Met Office forecast for Haneda, which currently projects a maximum daytime temperature of 28°C to 30°C for the coming days, with a dip to 27°C possible if cloud cover persists [3]. The key catalyst is the daily Wunderground data release for RJTT, which will settle the market once the first data point for 7 July is published [1]. No political or campaign-finance events influence this weather market; the sole dependency is the official temperature record from the resolution source.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.