Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s reading will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final daily extract, using the lowest temperature reached on 31 July and recorded to one decimal place. In practical terms, the market is really about whether the city prints an unusually cool overnight minimum, rather than the daytime heat that dominates July climate norms.

Historical context points against a very low outcome. Hong Kong is typically hot and humid in July, with average lows around 26–28°C and typical daily lows near 80°F/27°C in forecast products for late July; AccuWeather’s July outlook for Hong Kong shows overnight lows clustered around 79–82°F, which is consistent with a minimum well above the mid-20s Celsius. That makes the crowd’s 3% YES price look like a tail event on a sub-25°C reading, not a routine summer night.[1][13][20]

The main catalyst for traders is the weather pattern over the next few hours and any thunderstorm or rain band that keeps cloud cover and showers in place through the evening and overnight. The Hong Kong Observatory had an active thunderstorm warning in force this morning, and its 9-day forecast for 31 July called for mainly cloudy conditions with a few showers, a 27–31°C range, and medium-low significant-rain probability; if that cloud and moisture persist, the minimum can settle a little lower than a clear, dry night, but the market is still leaning on ordinary summer heat rather than an exceptional cool spell.[6][11][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.