In this guide
With the 2028 US presidential election still more than two years on the horizon, prediction markets have already begun establishing prices across the field. Republican succession following Trump's constitutional ineligibility and Democratic primary competition are both seeing substantial trading volume. Those who spot mispricing in these nascent markets stand to benefit as the candidate pool eventually consolidates.
Republican 2028 Presidential Market
The Republican nomination race remains unsettled given Trump's inability to seek a third consecutive term:
- J.D. Vance: ~25-30% — Vice-presidential incumbency, alignment with Trump's base
- Ron DeSantis: ~15-20% — Gubernatorial record, recovery following disappointing 2024 primary showing
- Nikki Haley: ~12-15% — Centrist positioning, international relations background
- Glenn Youngkin: ~7-10% — Virginia's two-term executive, entrepreneurial credentials
- Josh Hawley: ~5-8% — Anti-establishment economic messaging
- Unknown candidate: ~15-20% — Sufficient room in the race for unexpected contenders
Democratic 2028 Presidential Market
- Kamala Harris: ~20-25% — Leading contender, party establishment backing
- Pete Buttigieg: ~12-15% — Cabinet prominence via Transportation portfolio
- Gavin Newsom: ~10-13% — West Coast executive, rising national prominence
- Josh Shapiro: ~8-12% — Competitive state governor from Pennsylvania
- Unknown candidate: ~25-30% — Timeline permits emergence of fresh voices
2028 General Election Probabilities
- Republican wins presidency 2028: ~48-52% (statistical parity at this stage)
- Democrat wins presidency 2028: ~48-52%
Why Trade 2028 Markets Now
Engaging with 2028 prediction markets at this juncture provides several advantages:
- Greater volatility in pricing (heightened uncertainty translates to amplified profit potential for prescient positioning)
- Extended timeframe to maintain exposure as new information surfaces
- Ability to establish positions in candidates before catalytic events drive valuations upward
Drawback: nascent markets exhibit heightened sensitivity to surprising developments and shifts in candidate participation.
FAQ
- Can a sitting VP (Vance) win the Republican nomination?
- Precedent is mixed regarding sitting vice presidents securing party nominations. George H.W. Bush succeeded Ronald Reagan in 1988; Al Gore's 2000 bid as sitting VP fell short. Markets currently treat Vance as the leading contender without assigning overwhelming probability.
- When do 2028 nomination markets resolve?
- Both Republican and Democratic nomination contracts settle following the conclusion of each party's summer convention — anticipated for July or August 2028.
- Are there markets for specific primary states?
- Dedicated markets for Iowa's caucus and New Hampshire's primary typically become available between six and twelve months prior to those contests — visit PolyGram's election forecasting resources for current offerings.