In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading volume and breadth of available contracts. Kalshi stands out as the sole federally-regulated option for American participants. Manifold excels for casual forecasters seeking entertainment without financial stakes. Across the EU and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram emerges as the preferred choice.
Since 2024, prediction markets have seen remarkable growth in adoption and trading activity. This guide examines how the leading platforms stack up heading into 2025.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Deepest markets on politics, crypto |
| Markets | 1,000+ active. Politics, crypto, sports, science, culture |
| Fees | 0% house edge. Spread typically 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC on Polygon (crypto required) |
| Access | Global (ex US). KYC required |
| Best for | Serious traders with information edge |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being America's sole CFTC-authorised prediction platform. It welcomes US-based traders who cannot access Polymarket and has experienced substantial expansion. Trade-offs include a narrower selection of markets relative to Polymarket, and regulatory constraints that restrict certain contract categories from being offered.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using virtual currency ("mana") instead of actual funds. This platform serves as an excellent resource for honing forecasting abilities and participating in collective wisdom exercises — though it appeals less to those seeking monetary returns. The ecosystem encompasses more than 10,000 user-generated prediction contracts.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus functions as an aggregator of crowd-sourced probabilistic estimates contributed by professional forecasters. While it does not involve real-money wagering, it excels at performance measurement and long-term trend analysis across international events. Academic institutions frequently reference its methodology when studying forecast quality.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the betting-exchange model and continues to process substantial transaction volumes across sports and political markets annually. Strengths include traditional currency support, FCA oversight, and robust sports market depth. Limitations encompass commission charges between 2-5% on net gains, absence of digital-asset offerings, and comparatively sparse election forecasting coverage relative to Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For users outside the United States seeking maximum market depth and contract diversity: Polymarket via PolyGram remains the optimal choice. PolyGram streamlines the blockchain experience whilst preserving full access to Polymarket's comprehensive order books. Start trading on PolyGram →