In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading depth and breadth of offerings. Kalshi stands out as the sole federally-regulated option for American participants. Manifold excels for casual, unpaid prediction games and community engagement. Across Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram remains the optimal choice.
Prediction markets have surged dramatically throughout 2024 and into 2025. Below is a comprehensive breakdown of how the leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Most robust order books for political markets and digital assets |
| Markets | 1,000+ active. Politics, crypto, sports, science, culture |
| Fees | 0% house edge. Spread typically 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC on Polygon (crypto required) |
| Access | Global (ex US). KYC required |
| Best for | Serious traders with information edge |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being America's sole CFTC-authorised prediction market platform. It welcomes US-based participants who cannot access Polymarket and has expanded considerably. Trade-offs include a narrower selection of available markets relative to Polymarket, and stringent US regulatory constraints that restrict certain market categories.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates on a virtual currency system ("mana") rather than actual funds. This makes it an excellent resource for honing forecasting abilities and participating in group predictions — though it does not appeal to those seeking monetary returns. The platform hosts more than 10,000 user-generated markets.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus compiles quantitative estimates from its network of professional forecasters. It operates without financial stakes, yet provides significant value for establishing forecast accuracy records and analysing global risk scenarios. The platform is regularly referenced in peer-reviewed studies examining forecast quality.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the betting exchange model and continues to process vast sums across sports and election forecasting annually. Strengths include fiat settlement, FCA oversight, and substantial sports market depth. Limitations encompass a 2-5% take on winning bets, absence of blockchain-based markets, and comparatively sparse political market selection versus Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants outside the US seeking maximum trading liquidity and the broadest range of available markets: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram simplifies blockchain interaction whilst providing complete access to Polymarket's underlying market data. Start trading on PolyGram →