Bitcoin price on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on the closing price of Bitcoin against the US dollar at noon Eastern Time on 11 June 2026, using Binance's 1-minute candle data as the sole resolution source. The current 0% implied probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific price bracket or view the settlement mechanism as too narrow to predict with confidence eighteen months in advance.

Bitcoin's intraday volatility at any given timestamp has historically ranged from 2–5% on ordinary trading days, though macroeconomic announcements or regulatory shifts can widen that spread considerably. The noon ET close on a single day represents an unusually precise target compared to daily or weekly settlement windows. Historical precedent from similar cryptocurrency markets shows that pinpointing exact price levels months ahead attracts minimal trading activity unless a major catalyst—such as regulatory approval, institutional adoption milestones, or Federal Reserve policy shifts—anchors expectations around a specific price range.

Traders monitoring this market should track developments in US monetary policy through 2026, potential Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund flows, and any significant regulatory announcements from the Securities and Exchange Commission or Treasury Department. Geopolitical tensions affecting risk appetite and energy markets also influence Bitcoin's trajectory. The settlement date falls outside any scheduled Federal Reserve meetings or major financial reporting windows, meaning the noon ET price will largely reflect prevailing market sentiment rather than a discrete news event, which may explain the current lack of conviction in any particular bracket.

Methodology

This page tracks Bitcoin price on June 11? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.