US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?
Yes 50%
No 50%
Vol. $89.7M
Politics prediction market · Vol. $59.2M
| April 22 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| April 30 | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| May 31 | 62% YES | 39% NO |
| June 30 | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| April 24 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 15 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicit
The Polymarket market "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" is currently trading at 0% YES. This means thousands of traders worldwide estimate the probability of this outcome at 0%.
These prices are generated by real capital (USDC) on the Polygon network — not by bookmaker margins. They reflect the aggregated collective judgement of informed market participants.
Prediction markets like this one let informed participants put real money behind their views. Politics markets on Polymarket are characterised by deep liquidity and fast resolution. This market closes on 31 May 2026 with automatic USDC settlement.
How do I trade this market? Visit PolyGram, create an account, deposit USDC, and buy YES or NO shares. Trading takes minutes.
What happens at resolution? USDC payouts are automatically processed via smart contract on Polygon — typically within minutes of the event resolving.
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Live data from Polymarket · updated hourly