What price will Bitcoin hit on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is whether Bitcoin will reach a specific price threshold on 25 June 2026, with the market currently assigning only a 5% probability to the "yes" outcome. This low implied probability reflects the asset’s recent downward trajectory, as Bitcoin traded at approximately $60,909 on 25 June, down from $62,651 the previous day and significantly below its all-time high of $126,198 reached in October 2025[1][5].

Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited extreme volatility, with prices swinging from over $126,000 in late 2025 to a low of $60,074 in early 2026, before stabilising between $65,000 and $73,000 in March[6]. Comparable cases show that such sharp corrections often precede periods of consolidation rather than immediate surges, suggesting the current 5% probability may be grounded in the asset’s recent inability to reclaim prior highs despite optimistic long-term models projecting values above $300,000 by 2030[2].

Traders should monitor scheduled declarations from major financial institutions, upcoming campaign-finance disclosures that could influence regulatory sentiment, and any announcements regarding institutional adoption or ETF inflows. Recent news from Fortune highlights that Bitcoin’s price remains roughly $43,500 below its level from one year ago, underscoring the market’s caution[1]. The market appears to be leaning on the catalyst of regulatory clarity, as uncertainty continues to weigh on investor confidence and price momentum.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks What price will Bitcoin hit on June 25? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.