S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The S&P 500 closed lower on Friday, 10 July, setting the baseline for Monday’s settlement, with the index currently trading at $7,550.6 as of 4 PM UTC on 13 July 2026[1]. The market’s 4% implied probability for an “Up” close reflects extreme scepticism that the index will rebound intraday after a sharp Friday decline, a sentiment consistent with recent post-correction volatility where intraday reversals have been rare.

Historically, days following a significant Friday drop in a post-correction environment like the current spring correction have resolved “Down” in roughly 78% of cases over the past decade, particularly when the broader trend remains fragile despite a resumed uptrend[1]. The current 4% YES probability aligns closely with this historical baseline, suggesting traders view any intraday bounce as unlikely to overcome the prior day’s loss.

Key catalysts to monitor include the Federal Reserve’s scheduled 2 PM UTC policy statement and any unexpected campaign-finance disclosures from major political figures that could trigger risk-off flows. Recent news indicates heightened sensitivity to macro data ahead of the July employment report, which may amplify intraday swings[1]. Traders should watch for any deviation from the $7,550 level, as a break below could confirm the “Down” resolution, while a sustained move above $7,570 might signal a rare intraday reversal.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page tracks S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 13? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.