NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the Democratic primary for New York’s 12th Congressional District, set to determine who will replace retiring Representative Jerry Nadler in the 2026 House elections. With the current crowd-implied probability of just 1% that any specific candidate wins, the market reflects extreme uncertainty in a race crowded with ten contenders, including high-profile names like Jack Schlossberg and George Conway, alongside local legislators Micah Lasher and Alex Bores.

Historically, primaries in New York City districts with multiple well-funded candidates and significant undecided voter blocs often produce surprise winners, as seen in the 2018 NY-14 and 2020 NY-13 contests where name recognition and late fundraising shifts overturned early polling leads. In this case, Schlossberg’s 25% lead in a March survey by City & State New York [1] contrasts sharply with Emerson College’s later poll showing Lasher at 22% and Schlossberg at only 11% [2], illustrating how volatile early snapshots can be when 33% of voters remain undecided [1]. This volatility frames why the market assigns such a low probability to any single outcome.

Traders should monitor three key catalysts: upcoming campaign-finance disclosures, scheduled candidate debates, and Super PAC activity, particularly the AI-funded super PAC that has already spent over $7 million on negative ads targeting Bores [5]. The primary’s leaning catalyst is likely the next major fundraising filing, as Bores currently leads with $2.2 million raised by end-of-2025, followed by Lasher at $1.4 million, while Conway has raised $2.4 million since January but has not yet filed official FEC disclosures [1]. A decisive shift in any of these areas could rapidly alter the nomination trajectory before the June 23 primary date.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.