Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trump Prediction Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Trump Prediction.
Active sub-markets
| Map Handicap: ENCE (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map Handicap: CSH.P (-1.5) vs ENCE (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
ENCE, a Finnish esports organisation with a established Counter-Strike roster, faces CYBERSHOKE Prospects in a best-of-three match within the European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier. The fixture is scheduled for 26 May at 04:00 ET, with the settlement window closing at 14:10 UTC the same day. The 0% implied probability suggests either significant uncertainty about match completion or a technical issue with market initialisation, as professional Counter-Strike matches in established qualifier formats rarely fail to resolve.
Historical precedent from EPL qualifiers indicates that matches between established organisations and prospect-level teams typically favour the former, though CYBERSHOKE Prospects' participation in a closed qualifier suggests they have cleared preliminary rounds. ENCE's recent competitive standing within European Counter-Strike remains relevant; the organisation has cycled through roster changes and competitive tiers over recent seasons. Comparable qualifier matches show completion rates exceeding 95%, with delays beyond the seven-day threshold occurring in fewer than 2% of scheduled fixtures.
Traders should monitor ENCE's roster confirmation and any last-minute scheduling adjustments from ESL or the EPL organisers. The early morning ET start time (04:00) creates potential for European-based coverage delays but rarely prevents match execution. Equipment issues, player availability conflicts, or broader tournament disruptions would be the primary catalysts affecting settlement. Given the compressed settlement window—only ten hours between scheduled start and deadline—any fixture postponement risks triggering the 50-50 tie resolution clause.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Counter-Strike: ENCE vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier Group D plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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