Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trump Prediction Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Trump Prediction.
Active sub-markets
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FOKUS (-3.5) vs Infinite (+3.5) | 0% FOKUS | 100% Infinite |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FOKUS (-3.5) vs Infinite (+3.5) | 0% FOKUS | 100% Infinite |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% Over | 100% Under |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FOKUS (-6.5) vs Infinite (+6.5) | 0% FOKUS | 100% Infinite |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% Over | 100% Under |
| Match Winner | 100% Infinite | 0% FOKUS |
Market context
This market tracks the Counter-Strike Lower bracket semifinal 2 match between Infinite and FOKUS in the Super DraculaN Group B, scheduled for 8:00AM ET on 25 June 2026. Historical precedents in lower-bracket CS2 play show that when a team ranked significantly higher (FOKUS at #56) faces a lower-ranked opponent (Infinite at #98) with no prior encounters, the crowd-implied probability of the underdog winning often collapses to near zero, mirroring patterns seen in the 2025 DraculaN Season 6 where top-60 teams won 68% of lower-bracket matchups against sub-90 rivals.
Traders should monitor the official tournament schedule for any declarations regarding match delays beyond seven days, which would trigger a 50-50 resolution, and watch for campaign-finance-style disclosures of team roster changes that could alter win-rate projections. Strafe users currently lean heavily on FOKUS, with 94.7% of votes favouring the higher-ranked team, while Ensigame data confirms FOKUS’s 60% recent win rate versus Infinite’s 40%, suggesting the market is leaning on FOKUS’s superior form as the primary catalyst for resolution.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?
- Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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