Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trump Prediction Pick polygram.ink |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Trump Prediction.
Active sub-markets
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 50% Team Vitality | 50% Team Heretics |
| Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) | 100% Team Vitality | 0% Team Heretics |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 100% Team Vitality | 0% Team Heretics |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 100% Team Vitality | 0% Team Heretics |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% Team Heretics | 100% Team Vitality |
| Match Winner | 0% Team Heretics | 100% Team Vitality |
Market context
Team Heretics and Team Vitality will contest the upper bracket quarterfinal at VCT Masters London on 12 June, with the winner advancing directly to the semi-finals. The match is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET and will be played as a best-of-three series. Both teams qualified through their respective regional leagues and represent the top competitive tier of European Valorant, making this a high-stakes elimination fixture in one of the year's premier international tournaments.
Heretics have historically performed well in international competition, particularly in 2024, whilst Vitality strengthened their roster ahead of this event with roster adjustments aimed at competing at the highest level. Head-to-head records between these squads show competitive matchups, though recent form and map pool compatibility will likely determine the outcome. The 50-50 implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty; neither team enters as a clear favourite based on available pre-tournament data and recent performance metrics from regional qualifiers.
Traders should monitor team announcements regarding player availability and any last-minute roster confirmations in the 48 hours before the match, as injuries or substitutions could materially shift expected performance. VCT official scheduling updates and any technical delays affecting the tournament bracket will also influence settlement conditions. Recent VCT Masters events have proceeded largely on schedule, though the seven-day grace period for resolution reflects the possibility of unforeseen disruptions. Map veto strategy and recent scrim results, where publicly disclosed by team social media, may provide marginal signals about preparation quality heading into the fixture.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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