Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve's policy trajectory over the first half of 2026 hinges on three consecutive FOMC meetings scheduled for mid-March, late April, and mid-June. The current 0% probability assigned to rate cuts reflects market expectations that the Fed will either hold rates steady or raise them across this window. The upper bound of the federal funds rate serves as the binding constraint; any downward movement in this ceiling qualifies as a cut, whilst upward movement constitutes a hike.

Historical precedent suggests that three-meeting windows rarely produce uniform policy direction. Between 2022 and 2023, the Fed shifted from aggressive hiking to pause to cutting within similar timeframes, driven by shifting inflation and employment data. The current probability distribution implies traders believe incoming economic data—particularly inflation readings and labour market strength through May 2026—will not justify easing. This contrasts sharply with late-cycle scenarios where three consecutive meetings frequently produce at least one cut as growth concerns mount.

The critical catalysts centre on Consumer Price Index releases in February, March, April and May, alongside monthly employment reports that precede each FOMC meeting. The Fed's December 2025 communications and any January inflation surprises will establish the baseline expectation. Traders should monitor whether core inflation remains sticky above the Fed's 2% target and whether unemployment ticks upward, either of which could shift the probability materially. Market pricing of fed funds futures contracts will provide real-time consensus shifts as data arrives.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.