WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above 2026 on June 11?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

WTI crude oil's closing price on 11 June 2026 will reflect global supply-demand conditions, geopolitical tensions, and macroeconomic expectations at that specific moment. The market currently assigns zero probability to any particular price threshold, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about the settlement price or insufficient trader participation to establish a consensus view.

Historical volatility in WTI pricing demonstrates why long-dated oil forecasts carry substantial uncertainty. Between 2020 and 2023, WTI ranged from below $20 to over $120 per barrel, driven by pandemic disruptions, OPEC+ production decisions, and shifts in US monetary policy. A comparable eighteen-month forecast window would have faced similar difficulty pinpointing a precise closing price, as geopolitical shocks—such as refinery outages or Middle Eastern escalations—can shift prices by $5–15 in single trading sessions. The 0% probability reading suggests traders are either awaiting clarity on the specific price threshold being tested or treating the market as too distant to price meaningfully.

Catalysts through mid-2026 include OPEC+ production announcements (typically quarterly), US Federal Reserve policy signals affecting dollar strength and real yields, and any supply disruptions from conflict or infrastructure damage. Crude inventories data, released weekly by the US Energy Information Administration, will provide regular momentum signals. The settlement window's timing in June places the forecast across multiple earnings seasons and potential central bank meetings, each capable of shifting risk appetite and energy demand expectations. Traders should monitor oil futures curves and implied volatility indices for shifts in consensus pricing.

Methodology

This page tracks WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above 2026 on June 11? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.