Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Lower Bracket final of the The International North America Closed Qualifier, where 4 Anchors and Ilmeria face the bug in a Best-of-3 match originally set for 4:00 PM ET on 26 June. With the market pricing a perfect 50-50 split, the crowd treats this as a coin flip between two teams of comparable regional standing, despite the bug holding a slightly higher world ranking of 49 against 4 Anchors and Ilmeria’s 42.

Historically, TI qualifier lower-bracket finals in North America have frequently resolved as 50-50 outcomes when teams sit within five ranking points of each other, as seen in the 2024 and 2025 regional playoffs where no team won more than two consecutive matches in the lower bracket. These comparable cases suggest that the current 50% probability is not an anomaly but a reflection of genuine volatility in a format where one lost map can swing the entire series, making the settlement window highly sensitive to early map results.

Traders should monitor the live map progression and net worth swings, as the bug’s 69% winrate in recent matches indicates a tendency to dominate early game phases, while 4 Anchors and Ilmeria’s 38% first-blood rate suggests they may struggle to secure early advantages. The primary catalyst is the first map outcome, which will likely determine the series trajectory, and any delay beyond the scheduled 4:49 PM EDT resolution time could trigger the 50-50 default clause, as noted in live match data from Hawk Live and DLTV.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.