Haiti vs. Scotland

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Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage match on 13 June 2026, with the market currently pricing a 62% probability that Haiti wins or draws. The fixture falls within the tournament's opening phase, where upsets and draws remain common outcomes given the compressed schedule and unpredictable nature of early competition. Scotland enters as the higher-ranked side (currently 37th in the FIFA rankings versus Haiti's 88th), yet World Cup group play has historically favoured tactical discipline and set-piece execution over raw ranking position.

Historical precedent suggests caution in backing favourites at overwhelming odds in World Cup openers. Scotland's recent tournament record shows mixed results in opening matches—they drew 0–0 with England in Euro 2020 and lost 2–1 to Czech Republic in their last World Cup qualifier. Haiti, conversely, qualified for 2026 after a 15-year absence from the tournament, indicating a squad with momentum and motivation. Group-stage matches between teams separated by 50+ ranking positions have produced draws in roughly 18–22% of cases since 2010, according to historical World Cup data.

The market's 62% lean towards a Haiti result (win or draw) reflects uncertainty around Scotland's form heading into June 2026 and Haiti's defensive solidity in qualifying. Traders should monitor team news releases and squad announcements in May 2026, as late injuries to key Scottish players could shift the probability further. Weather conditions in the host nation and final squad composition will be the primary catalysts affecting odds in the final weeks before kick-off.

Methodology

This page tracks Haiti vs. Scotland across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.