Morocco vs. Haiti - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the inaugural FIFA World Cup Group C match between Morocco and Haiti at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, scheduled for 6:00 PM ET on 24 June 2026. This is the first time these nations have met in any official or friendly contest, with Haiti chasing a historic first tournament point after losing its past five World Cup fixtures, while Morocco has won three of its last four group-stage matches, a rate of success exceeding its first sixteen World Cup outings[1][2].

Historically, exact-score markets in debut World Cup encounters between teams with such divergent recent records tend to cluster around low-probability outliers, mirroring cases where a dominant side faces a tournament debutant with a losing streak; the current 5% crowd-implied probability aligns with comparable fixtures where the stronger team’s clean-sheet tendency and the weaker side’s scoring drought frame the outcome as a rare, specific result rather than a common one[1][2].

Traders should monitor pre-match line-up announcements at 5:00 PM ET and any late campaign-finance disclosures from either national federation that might signal squad readiness, as Morocco’s reliance on a tight defensive structure and Haiti’s need for an aggressive breakthrough are the primary catalysts leaning the market toward an exact score resolution[3][5]. The market is most sensitive to Morocco’s defensive discipline, given their 0.4 opponent points per game average, and Haiti’s ability to convert their first-ever meeting into a point, with no major scheduled debates or conventions altering the immediate pre-match landscape[4][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Morocco vs. Haiti - Exact Score across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.