Highest temperature in NYC on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 9 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will determine which Fahrenheit range resolves this market. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, requiring resolution data from Wunderground's historical weather records for that specific date and location.

New York City's June temperatures typically range between 75°F and 88°F, with historical averages clustering around 79°F for daily highs. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the actual high to fall outside whichever temperature band this market offers as the upper threshold. June weather in the New York metropolitan area rarely produces extremes; heat waves are uncommon before mid-summer, and the month generally experiences moderate conditions influenced by Atlantic maritime air masses. Comparable June days at LaGuardia show consistent patterns: temperatures exceeding 90°F occur in fewer than 5% of years, whilst readings below 70°F are similarly rare.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasting models as June 2026 approaches, particularly the Climate Prediction Center's monthly outlooks released in May. The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins 1 June, potentially influencing moisture levels and cloud cover that affect daily highs. Any significant atmospheric patterns—such as early-season tropical systems or anomalous high-pressure systems—would shift probability distributions. Real-time forecast updates from the National Weather Service New York office typically become reliable five to ten days before the target date, providing the most actionable data for position adjustments near the settlement window.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on June 9? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.