0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

Zero ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz have occurred intermittently since the US–Iran conflict escalated in February 2026, with traffic dropping to near-standstill levels for weeks amid naval blockades and drone attacks [4][5]. The strait, which normally handles roughly 60 vessels daily and carries 21% of global oil supply, was briefly reopened on 21 April 2026 before closing again the following day due to renewed security incidents [5][9]. Historical data shows crude export voyages through Hormuz fell 90% after the 17 June deal, with zero activity recorded on 10 of the last 19 days tracked by WTO data [1].

The market leans on the June 17 agreement between the US and Iran, which mandates immediate commencement of commercial navigation and requires the US to lift its naval blockade by 19 July 2026, with Iran expected to restore pre-war traffic levels within the same timeframe [2]. Traders should monitor whether Iran fulfils its obligation to exert “best efforts” to reopen the strait fully before the July 19 deadline, as failure could trigger renewed closures [2]. Recent reports indicate 25 commercial vessels traversed the strait on a single Thursday—the highest volume since April—suggesting traffic is slowly picking up post-agreement [2]. However, uncertainty remains over whether Iran will retain authority to impose tolls after the 60-day toll-free window expires, potentially disrupting flows again [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.