How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz is experiencing a fragile but measurable recovery in shipping traffic following the US–Iran interim peace deal signed in Switzerland in mid-June 2026, with vessels now trickling through after a weeks-long blockade that left roughly 500 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf[3]. By the weekend of July 6, maritime data confirmed renewed movement, though passages remain well below pre-conflict volumes as insurers and operators cautiously navigate the newly split US and Iranian lanes[5][6].

Historical comparisons to the 2019–2020 Hormuz tensions suggest that even partial reopenings yield 10–15 transits per day once backlog clearance begins, but experts warn full normalization could take eight weeks[3]. The current 84% YES probability implies the market expects roughly 100–110 total transits for the week, aligning with analyst Ana Subasic’s estimate of 15 daily crossings once the Swiss signing triggered the trickle[3]. This aligns with early June data showing zero outbound commercial vessels, followed by a gradual uptick to dozens of VLCCs and LNG ships by late June[1][4].

Traders should monitor the JMIC advisory issued July 6, which expanded the southern Hormuz route and confirmed its availability, as well as any fresh US military strikes aimed at keeping the strait open[9][10]. The key catalyst is the pace of backlog clearance: if the 500 trapped ships begin moving in earnest post-signing, weekly totals could surge toward 120, but insurance premiums and geopolitical flare-ups remain dependencies that could cap daily flows[3]. Reuters’ live vessel tracker and MarineTraffic’s confirmed data from July 6 will be critical for validating whether the recovery stays on schedule[2][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

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