Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

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Market context

The question centres on whether military vessels from a specified nation will pass through the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world's most strategically sensitive waterways, through which roughly one-third of seaborne traded oil transits annually. The strait, separating Iran from Oman, has been a flashpoint for naval posturing, interdiction operations, and freedom-of-navigation exercises for decades. The 5% implied probability reflects the baseline rarity of formal, publicly confirmed warship transits by most nations during any given eighteen-month window, though the threshold for "credible reporting" and "broad consensus" creates ambiguity around what counts as settlement-eligible evidence.

Historical precedent suggests the crowd is pricing in low likelihood because most nations either avoid the strait entirely, conduct transits quietly without announcement, or operate under standing agreements that keep passages routine rather than newsworthy. The United States, United Kingdom, and France have conducted freedom-of-navigation operations there; Gulf states maintain regular naval presence; and China has expanded its naval footprint in the region. However, formal government confirmation or credible multi-source reporting of a specific transit remains uncommon outside crisis periods or deliberate show-of-force moments.

Traders should monitor escalation signals in the Iran nuclear programme, any new US or European sanctions regimes, and statements from regional naval commands. Recent reporting from Reuters and the US Naval Institute has tracked increased Iranian naval activity and occasional Western responses, though these rarely trigger the kind of explicit, consensus-backed confirmation this market demands. The settlement window extends through mid-2026, capturing potential shifts in regional tensions tied to broader Middle East policy shifts.

Methodology

This page tracks Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

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