"Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Paramount Pictures is releasing a new instalment in the "Scary Movie" franchise for a domestic opening weekend of 5–7 June 2026. The 0% crowd probability reflects widespread scepticism about the film's commercial viability, though the franchise has historically demonstrated resilience across multiple decades and shifting horror-comedy tastes.

The original "Scary Movie" (2000) opened to $42.3 million domestically, whilst its 2001 sequel earned $32.2 million. More recent entries showed declining trajectories: "Scary Movie 5" (2013) opened to $15.1 million, and the franchise lay dormant for over a decade before this revival. Horror-comedies have proven volatile in recent years, with comparable ensemble comedies ranging from $8 million to $25 million opening weekends depending on marketing saturation and audience appetite for parody. The current zero probability suggests traders are pricing in either minimal marketing investment, poor test screenings, or broader franchise fatigue.

Key catalysts include the film's marketing spend and critical reception in the weeks preceding release. Trade publications including Variety and The Hollywood Reporter typically report studio marketing budgets and early box office tracking data in May, which would provide concrete signals about Paramount's confidence. Trailer performance metrics and social media engagement will shape late-stage consumer interest. The settlement window closes 8 June at 12:00 UTC, requiring final figures from The Numbers rather than studio estimates, meaning actual ticket sales data will determine resolution rather than projections.

Methodology

This page tracks "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.