"The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

"The Odyssey" is scheduled for theatrical release in late July 2026, with its second weekend box office performance (24–26 July) forming the basis for this market's resolution. The current 1% implied probability suggests traders expect the film to underperform significantly during its sophomore frame, a common pattern for wide releases that fail to sustain opening-weekend momentum. Resolution will depend on final domestic figures reported via The Numbers' Box Office tab, with ties between brackets settling to the higher range.

Second-weekend holds for wide releases typically range from 45–65% of opening weekend gross, though this varies sharply by genre and critical reception. Franchise entries and event films often hold stronger, whilst poorly-reviewed comedies and dramas frequently drop 60% or more. Without advance knowledge of "The Odyssey's" opening performance, critical consensus, or competitive landscape that weekend, the 1% probability reflects either extreme pessimism about the film's appeal or confidence that it will face substantial headwinds from other releases or poor word-of-mouth.

Traders should monitor early reviews and opening-weekend box office figures once they materialise in late July, as these will be the primary indicators of second-weekend trajectory. Competition from other releases and any major marketing pushes in the film's second week could also influence performance. The settlement window closes 26 July 2026 at 23:59 UTC, requiring final figures from The Numbers rather than studio estimates.

Methodology

This page tracks "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.