Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by 2026?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains the key test case for whether traffic can normalise before the end of August, but the latest data still shows sharply depressed transits rather than a return to routine flow. Reuters reported eight vessels on 12 August, below a 10-day average of about 12, while Lloyd’s List Intelligence said 78 transits were recorded in the week of 3–9 August, down from 95 the week before, and Reuters earlier noted traffic had fallen to six or nine vessels on several days[1][2][3].

That leaves the current 1% implied probability anchored to a hard historical baseline: a full move back to “normal” would require sustained daily counts well above recent readings and, under the market rules, a 7-day moving average of at least 60 arrivals published by IMF Portwatch. On the evidence available, the market is still pricing a continuation of disruption rather than a swift reversion, with recent counts more consistent with a crisis regime than a settled shipping pattern[1][2].

The main catalyst traders are watching is any shift in the security and diplomacy backdrop, especially the Iran-related talks cited by Reuters and any easing in attacks on vessels. Reuters linked the recent traffic decline to renewed hostilities and fading hopes of a deal, while later coverage said transits stayed weak amid competing US-Iran claims and attacks on ships, which is the clearest near-term driver for whether Portwatch figures can recover before the 31 August settlement date[1][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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