Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are once again crossing the Strait of Hormuz after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17, 2026, which guarantees immediate commercial navigation. This agreement, which Tehran had effectively blocked during the conflict, marks the first sustained reopening since the strait was briefly closed on April 22 following a short-lived reopening on April 21. The current crowd-implied probability of 21% reflects deep scepticism that traffic will stabilise at the required level of 60 daily transit calls by August 31, given that the strait remains officially closed and commercial shipping is suspended despite the deal.

Historical precedents show that brief reopenings in volatile regions often collapse quickly when underlying security threats persist, as seen in the April 21–22 window where 25 vessels crossed before the strait shut again. Comparable cases from the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb demonstrate that even after diplomatic agreements, shipping volumes can drop by over 12% due to fears of missile attacks and Houthi solidarity with Iran, as noted by maritime intelligence in recent weeks. The market is leaning heavily on the catalyst of the US naval blockade lift scheduled for July 19, which the MOU mandates, yet the agreement does not clarify whether Iran will retain authority over the strait or impose tolls after the initial 60-day toll-free period.

Traders should monitor the July 19 deadline for the US blockade lift and any subsequent declarations from Iran regarding tolls or permits, as these will directly impact transit volumes. CNN reports that 25 commercial vessels traversed the strait on Thursday, the highest volume since April, but this surge remains fragile amid ongoing risks of missile attacks and war cover expiration. The market’s low probability suggests that unless Iran fully restores pre-war traffic levels by mid-August, the 60-call threshold will not be met, leaving the settlement to resolve as “No” when the IMF Portwatch data is published.

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Methodology

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