Who will enter Iran by June 30?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the formal signing of a US-Iran peace agreement by President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on 17 June 2026, which established a 60-day ceasefire and initiated high-level negotiations in Switzerland. This diplomatic breakthrough, endorsed at the G7 summit in Versailles, marks a historic shift from years of conflict and sets the stage for potential future visits, though no specific individual has yet been announced to travel to Iran before the market’s settlement date.

Historically, major peace accords between the US and Iran have rarely resulted in immediate personal visits by sitting US presidents or senior officials within the first six months, as seen in the 1979 Camp David framework and the 2015 nuclear deal, where trust-building occurred through envoys rather than direct presence. The current 0% crowd-implied probability aligns with this pattern, reflecting the market’s leaning on the absence of any scheduled declaration or campaign-finance disclosure indicating a planned visit by a named figure, despite the ceasefire framework.

Traders should monitor the ongoing Switzerland talks for any announcement of a US delegation leader’s travel itinerary, the status of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, and whether Israel halts military actions in Lebanon—a key precondition for the 60-day ceasefire to continue. Recent reports from CNN and Reuters confirm that negotiations are active but fragile, with Vice President JD Vance’s trip postponed as of 19 June, suggesting no imminent visit is planned. The market is leaning on the lack of a concrete catalyst, such as a scheduled debate or convention, that would trigger a positive resolution.

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Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Who will enter Iran by June 30? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

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On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.