US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?
Yes 50%
No 50%
Vol. $89.7M
Politics prediction market · Vol. $7.6M
| May 31 | 68% YES | 32% NO |
| April 17 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| April 12 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| April 15 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| April 19 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| April 13 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherw
The Polymarket market "Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?" is currently trading at 68% YES. This means thousands of traders worldwide estimate the probability of this outcome at 68%.
These prices are generated by real capital (USDC) on the Polygon network — not by bookmaker margins. They reflect the aggregated collective judgement of informed market participants.
Prediction markets like this one let informed participants put real money behind their views. Politics markets on Polymarket are characterised by deep liquidity and fast resolution. This market closes on 30 April 2026 with automatic USDC settlement.
How do I trade this market? Visit PolyGram, create an account, deposit USDC, and buy YES or NO shares. Trading takes minutes.
What happens at resolution? USDC payouts are automatically processed via smart contract on Polygon — typically within minutes of the event resolving.
Is this legal? Prediction market regulations vary by jurisdiction. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose.
Live data from Polymarket · updated hourly