Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump would need to resign, be removed through impeachment and conviction, or be declared unfit under the 25th Amendment before 30 June 2026 for this market to resolve affirmatively. The settlement window covers the first 18 months of his second term, beginning in January 2025. Currently, the crowd assigns zero probability to this outcome, reflecting the political consensus that removal remains extraordinarily unlikely within this timeframe.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. No sitting US President has ever been removed through the 25th Amendment; Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 to avoid near-certain impeachment and conviction. Impeachment requires a House majority to bring charges and a two-thirds Senate supermajority to convict and remove. With Republicans controlling both chambers following the 2024 election, the legislative pathway to removal appears structurally closed. Voluntary resignation would require an unprecedented reversal of Trump's stated commitment to serve a full term, contradicting his public positioning since announcing his candidacy in 2022.

Traders monitoring this market should track developments around ongoing legal proceedings, particularly any Supreme Court rulings on presidential immunity or state-level cases that might create unexpected political pressure. The 14th Amendment's Section 3 eligibility question, though largely settled by the Supreme Court in March 2024, could theoretically resurface if new evidence emerged of insurrectional conduct. Significant health events, unexpected scandal revelations, or dramatic shifts in approval ratings below historical lows might theoretically alter calculations, though none currently suggest imminent departure. The market's zero probability reflects the absence of credible near-term catalysts for removal.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Trump out as President by June 30? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.