Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Vladimir Putin's tenure as President of Russia faces assessment over the next two years, with the market currently pricing a 9% chance he ceases to hold the office by end-2026. The resolution criteria encompass resignation, removal, detention, or permanent incapacity to discharge presidential duties—including any announced departure regardless of implementation timing. This captures both formal constitutional transitions and de facto loss of power.

Historical precedent for Russian leadership change remains sparse. Since 1991, only Boris Yeltsin voluntarily relinquished the presidency, resigning on New Year's Eve 1999 to hand power to Putin. Forced removals of sitting Russian presidents have not occurred in the post-Soviet era. The 9% probability reflects both the structural entrenchment of Putin's power apparatus and the genuine unpredictability of health crises, internal elite fracture, or military-political upheaval. Comparable markets on other long-serving authoritarian leaders typically price removal probabilities between 5–15% over two-year windows, suggesting this market sits within conventional expectations for regime stability assessment.

Traders monitoring this outcome should track reporting on Putin's health and public appearances, given his age (73 by end-2026) and the opacity surrounding his medical status. Developments within Russia's security services, military command structure, or oligarchic networks could signal elite fracturing; outlets including Reuters and the Financial Times have periodically reported on tensions between FSB factions and military leadership. Any formal constitutional amendments altering presidential powers, scheduled elections, or unexpected Kremlin personnel reshuffles warrant close attention. The market's lean toward stability reflects assessments that institutional mechanisms for orderly succession remain underdeveloped and that near-term catalysts for change appear limited.

Methodology

This page tracks Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.