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PGA Tour: Rocket Classic Winner

"PGA Tour: Rocket Classic Winner" — live political-market odds plus comparison across the four major prediction venues.

Michael Thorbjornsen 66% Davis Riley 19% Marco Penge 18% Ryo Hisatsune 15% Volume: $264K Liquidity: $651K Closes: 2 Aug 2026
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PGA Tour: Rocket Classic Winner

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 66% 34% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 66% 34% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Michael Thorbjornsen66%
Davis Riley19%
Marco Penge18%
Ryo Hisatsune15%
Ze-Cheng Dou15%
Peter Malnati14%
Ricky Castillo14%
Austin Eckroat14%
Stephan Jaeger12%
Emiliano Grillo12%
Sung-Jae Im12%
Johnny Keefer11%
Corey Conners9%
Harris English6%
J.J. Spaun5%
Keita Nakajima5%
Xander Schauffele4%
Benjamin James4%
Davis Thompson4%
Hideki Matsuyama4%
Keegan Bradley3%
Doug Ghim3%
Rickie Fowler1%
Ryan Gerard1%
Patrick Fishburn1%
Michael Kim1%
Chris Kirk1%
Kevin Yu1%
Patrick Cantlay1%
Jordan L. Smith1%
Si Woo Kim1%
Jackson Koivun1%
Jordan Spieth1%
Matt Wallace1%
Cameron Young1%
Jacob Bridgeman1%
Luke Clanton1%
Russell Henley1%
Kevin Roy1%
Kristoffer Ventura1%
Mark Hubbard0%
Brandt Snedeker0%
Eric Cole0%
Rico Hoey0%
Gordon Sargent0%
Adam Schenk0%
Neal Shipley0%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout0%
Akshay Bhatia0%
Tony Finau0%
Chris Gotterup0%
Ben Griffin0%
David Lipsky0%
Max McGreevy0%
Sam Stevens0%
Aaron Wise0%
Matt Kuchar0%
Zach Bauchou0%
Steven Fisk0%
Max Greyserman0%
Billy Horschel0%
Henry Lebioda0%
Stefano Mazzoli0%
Matt McCarty0%
Thorbjorn Olesen0%
Jackson Suber0%
Adam Svensson0%
Nick Taylor0%
Karl Vilips0%
Vince Whaley0%
Justin Lower0%
Zac Blair0%
Jimmy Stanger0%
Chandler Blanchet0%
Brian Campbell0%
Rafael Campos0%
Pierceson Coody0%
Joel Dahmen0%
Brad Dalke0%
Cam Davis0%
A.J. Ewart0%
Brice Garnett0%
Garrick Higgo0%
Joe Highsmith0%
Lee Hodges0%
Tom Hoge0%
Nicolai Hojgaard0%
Mackenzie Hughes0%
Patton Kizzire0%
Jake Knapp0%
Mac Meissner0%
Matthieu Pavon0%
Andrew Putnam0%
Chad Ramey0%
Ryan Ruffels0%
Matthias Schmid0%
Webb Simpson0%
Kevin Streelman0%
Dylan Wu0%
Sudarshan Yellamaraju0%
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Other0%

Market context

The PGA Tour: Rocket Classic Winner prediction market currently prices this outcome at 66% YES. This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 Rocket Classic tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the Rocket Classic tournament based on the of…

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for PGA Tour: Rocket Classic Winner plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?
Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?
Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
How fast do political markets react to news?
High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
Which political events have the biggest volume?
US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.
Sarah MitchellSarah MitchellPolitical Markets WriterandJames WilliamsJames WilliamsPrediction Market Analyst

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