US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?
Yes 50%
No 50%
Vol. $89.7M
Politics prediction market · Vol. $589.8M
| Donald Trump | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Person AN | — | |
| Person CX | — | |
| J.D. Vance | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Rand Paul | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Person P | — | |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The Polymarket market "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is currently trading at 50% YES. This means thousands of traders worldwide estimate the probability of this outcome at 50%.
These prices are generated by real capital (USDC) on the Polygon network — not by bookmaker margins. They reflect the aggregated collective judgement of informed market participants.
Prediction markets like this one let informed participants put real money behind their views. Politics markets on Polymarket are characterised by deep liquidity and fast resolution. This market closes on 7 November 2028 with automatic USDC settlement.
How do I trade this market? Visit PolyGram, create an account, deposit USDC, and buy YES or NO shares. Trading takes minutes.
What happens at resolution? USDC payouts are automatically processed via smart contract on Polygon — typically within minutes of the event resolving.
Is this legal? Prediction market regulations vary by jurisdiction. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose.
Live data from Polymarket · updated hourly