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Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs

"Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs" — live political-market odds plus comparison across the four major prediction venues.

Map 1 Winner 100% Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 3DMAX (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) 100% Match Winner 91% Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 3DMAX (-9.5) vs Gentle Mates (+9.5) 91% Volume: $232K Liquidity: $386K Closes: 17 Jul 2026
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Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 3DMAX (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5)100%
Match Winner91%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 3DMAX (-9.5) vs Gentle Mates (+9.5)91%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 3DMAX (-6.5) vs Gentle Mates (+6.5)90%
Map Handicap: 3DMAX (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5)78%
Map 2 Winner77%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 3DMAX (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5)50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.550%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 3DMAX (-6.5) vs Gentle Mates (+6.5)50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 3DMAX (-9.5) vs Gentle Mates (+9.5)50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.549%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 3DMAX (-12.5) vs Gentle Mates (+12.5)49%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs 3DMAX (+1.5)38%
O/U 2.5 Games24%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.510%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.510%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.510%

Market context

Market consensus: 100% chance of counter-strike: 3dmax vs gentle mates (bo3) - stake ranked episode 3 playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower Bracket Quarterfinals 1 match between 3DMAX and Gentle Mates in the Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 17 …

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?
Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?
Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
Sarah MitchellSarah MitchellPolitical Markets WriterandJames WilliamsJames WilliamsPrediction Market Analyst

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