Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-3.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-6.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-3.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-3.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-12.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+12.5) | 48% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-6.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-12.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+12.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-9.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+9.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-9.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+9.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of counter-strike: eyeballers vs tyloo (bo3) - xse pro league group stage. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 3 match between EYEBALLERS and TYLOO in the XSE Pro League Group Stage, initially scheduled for July 3 at 1:00AM ET. This market wil…
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs TYLOO (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
Trade Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs TYLOO (BO3) - XSE Pro … on Trump Prediction
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