Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trump Prediction Pick polygram.ink |
27% | 73% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
27% | 73% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Trump Prediction.
Active sub-markets
| Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) | 27% FUT Esports | 74% G2 |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) | 38% G2 | 62% FUT Esports |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% Over | 49% Under |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) | 37% FUT Esports | 64% G2 |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% Over | 49% Under |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% Over | 50% Under |
Market context
The Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 prediction market currently prices this outcome at 27% YES. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 2 match between FUT Esports and G2 in the IEM Cologne Major Stage 3, initially scheduled for June 12 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "FUT Espo…
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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