Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trump Prediction Pick polygram.ink |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Trump Prediction.
Active sub-markets
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-6.5) vs Monte (+6.5) | 50% Legacy | 50% Monte |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% Over | 50% Under |
| Match Winner | 43% Monte | 57% Legacy |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) | 51% Legacy | 49% Monte |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% Over | 49% Under |
Market context
Monte and Legacy will compete in a best-of-one Counter-Strike match during the IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 on 7 June 2025 at 08:30 ET. This represents a Round 3 fixture in the tournament's group stage, where both teams will be seeking to advance through the competition's bracket structure. The match carries standard Major-level stakes, with progression implications for both squads' tournament runs.
Historical precedent for Monte versus Legacy encounters remains limited in recent competitive Counter-Strike, making direct head-to-head records less informative than broader team form trajectories. Monte's recent performance at tier-one events and Legacy's standing within their respective region provide the primary context for assessing relative strength. Best-of-one formats introduce higher variance than extended series, favouring teams with strong map pools and consistent early-round execution rather than those reliant on adaptation across multiple maps. Teams' recent LAN placements, roster stability, and performance against comparable opposition offer more reliable indicators than historical matchup data alone.
Traders should monitor official IEM Cologne scheduling announcements for any fixture changes or delays, as the settlement window extends only seven days beyond the scheduled date. Team roster confirmations and any last-minute substitutions announced by either squad could shift match dynamics. Recent form updates from qualifying events or warm-up matches in the days preceding 7 June will provide the most current information on team condition and preparation levels. ESL's official tournament communications and Counter-Strike esports news outlets will carry fixture confirmations and any scheduling adjustments.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?
- Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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