Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trump Prediction Pick polygram.ink |
31% | 69% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
31% | 69% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Trump Prediction.
Active sub-markets
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 9z (-3.5) vs PARIVISION (+3.5) | 31% 9z | 69% PARIVISION |
| Match Winner | 54% PARIVISION | 47% 9z |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 47% Over | 54% Under |
| Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) | 33% PARIVISION | 68% 9z |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) | 35% PARIVISION | 65% 9z |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% Over | 50% Under |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 31% YES probability for Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 1 match between PARIVISION and 9z in the IEM Cologne Major Stage 3, initially scheduled for June 11 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "PARIVISIO…
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?
- Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne… on Trump Prediction
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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