How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.

Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs GamerLegion (BO2) - Es…

Name: Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs GamerLegion (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group A
Start: 2026-07-09T16:33:38.415Z
End: 2026-07-10T15:00:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	95%	5%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Live odds →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	95%	5%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Live odds →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Live odds →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Live odds →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 1?	95%
Ends in Daytime	90%
Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1?	90%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	50%
Any Player Ultra Kill	50%
Any Player Rampage	50%
Ends in Daytime	50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	50%
Any Player Ultra Kill	50%
Any Player Rampage	50%
First Blood in Game 2?	50%
First Blood in Game 1?	50%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?	50%
Game 2 Winner	37%
Match Winner	15%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	10%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?	10%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1?	10%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?	10%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?	10%
Game 1 Winner	0%

Market context

Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs GamerLegion (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group A — current market-implied probability: 95%. This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Rune Eaters and GamerLegion in the Esports World Cup Group A, initially scheduled for July 10 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Rune Eaters" if…

Methodology

This page tracks Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs GamerLegion (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group A across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?: Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?: Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?: Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?: Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
Which political events have the biggest volume?: US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.

Sarah MitchellPolitical Markets Writerand

James WilliamsPrediction Market Analyst

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Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs GamerLegion (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group A

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs GamerLegion (BO2) - Esports W… on Trump Prediction

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