Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Execration’s lower-bracket quarter-final against Mentality Monster is a straight Bo3 knockout in the Southeast Asia closed qualifier for The International, so the market’s 50% crowd line is effectively saying the series is close to coin-flip territory. On the available pre-match pricing, though, Execration has been treated as the more likely winner: Bo3.gg lists Execration at 1.50 to win outright, while the same match page shows a 2-0 Execration scoreline as the most likely exact result. [1]

That framing matters because short Bo3s in regional qualifier playoffs are often more volatile than season-long team records suggest. Strafe notes Execration had won 2 of its last 5 matches and entered the series with a strong user consensus, with 81.3% of votes backing Execration over Mentality Monster. [2] There is also no head-to-head history between the sides on the live match listings, which leaves traders relying more on current form and market sentiment than on any direct matchup record. [4]

The main catalyst to watch is simply whether the series is played on schedule and produces a clean winner before the market’s settlement window closes; the match was listed for 22 June at 02:00 UTC, with live score pages confirming the same fixture. [2][3] If there is any delay, cancellation, or unresolved result beyond the seven-day cutoff, the market can revert to 50-50 under the rules, so traders will be watching tournament updates and the official bracket status closely rather than any off-stage storyline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.